STRATFOR article "Former Soviet Countries and the 'Egypt Effect"

Summary

As protests continue in Egypt, there has been much speculation that similar developments could occur in the former Soviet Union, particularly in Russia. This is unlikely, however, as there are too many differences — both cultural and political — between Egypt and the former Soviet states. However, factors unrelated to the Egypt unrest have created risks for instability in several other former Soviet countries.

Analysis

As the unrest in Egypt has continued unfolding, there has been much speculation about the possibility of similar developments occurring in Russia and other countries across the former Soviet Union (FSU). This is not particularly surprising or unfounded; as with Egypt, many FSU states have autocratic leaders who have been in power for decades, and in many of these countries, authoritarian leaders suppress the opposition, often forcefully.
But there are several fundamental differences that preclude the possibility of the “Egypt effect” reaching FSU countries. That said, some key countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia are, for reasons quite separate from the Egyptian unrest, facing pressures that could strain their political and social stability.