STRATFOR article "Former Soviet Countries and the 'Egypt Effect"

Summary

As protests continue in Egypt, there has been much speculation that similar developments could occur in the former Soviet Union, particularly in Russia. This is unlikely, however, as there are too many differences — both cultural and political — between Egypt and the former Soviet states. However, factors unrelated to the Egypt unrest have created risks for instability in several other former Soviet countries.

Analysis

As the unrest in Egypt has continued unfolding, there has been much speculation about the possibility of similar developments occurring in Russia and other countries across the former Soviet Union (FSU). This is not particularly surprising or unfounded; as with Egypt, many FSU states have autocratic leaders who have been in power for decades, and in many of these countries, authoritarian leaders suppress the opposition, often forcefully.
But there are several fundamental differences that preclude the possibility of the “Egypt effect” reaching FSU countries. That said, some key countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia are, for reasons quite separate from the Egyptian unrest, facing pressures that could strain their political and social stability.

PACE REVIVES KARABAKH PANEL DESPITE ARMENIAN OBJECTIONS

“Discussions of such measures within an enlarged format, whether we name it ad hoc committee or whichever other body, so far as it involves public discussions in the presence of a larger group, is tantamount to a mere creation of yet another platform for acrimonious rhetoric and mutual accusations”- said Armenian delegates in a letter to PACE Bureau. But they didn’t receive that letter.

CURIOS MISTAKE

This text is from Council of Europe official website. They wrote that Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey and Chairperson of the Committee of Ministers Mr Davutoğlu said. “Last year, when I signed the protocols between Turkey and Armenia to normalize relations, we fully intended to meet three objectives… The third is to normalize relations in the South Caucasus, which means normalization between Turkey and Armenia but also between Turkey and Azerbaijan.”

'Normalisation of Armenia-Turkey relations is region’s interest'

“Normalisation of relations between Armenia and Turkey is in interests of the two countries as well as comes from a regional interest,” said Monday in the press conference UK’s Ambassador to Armenia Charles Lonsdale.

He said “welcomes the progress reached in the Armenian-Turkish relations in a result of the football diplomacy, which started in 2008 by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s initiative.”

“Sure, we are disappointed with the fact that process was cut short,” said Charles Lonsdale.

Nalbandian Warns Turkey, Cools Karabakh Peace Talk

Armenia -- Video screenshot, Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian in RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau, 17Jan2010

Turkey will risk reversing its unprecedented rapprochement with Armenia if it persists in linking the process with a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict desired by Azerbaijan, Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian said on Sunday.

OSCE Members Praise New Push For Karabakh Peace

Greece -- The venue of the 17th OSCE Ministerial Council, which takes place in Athens on 1-2 December 2009.

The foreign ministers of over 50 countries making up Europe’s largest security structure praised Armenia and Azerbaijan late Wednesday for their latest pledge to “work intensively” to overcome disagreements hampering the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.